Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Rhythm game?

Rhythm + Horror

Only 17 developers shipped a Horror Rhythm game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Everhood 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2786 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $2.9k → $4.1k → $108k → $2.5k → $1.1k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,379)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 59
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Rhythm; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trombone Champ older $14.99 10,327 98% 310k $4.6M (exactly $4,644,052) Holy Wow Studios LLC
Thumper older $19.99 4,056 91% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,383) Drool
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Incredibox older $4.99 5,633 96% 169k $843k (exactly $843,260) So Far So Good
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory
SPOOKWARE older $4.99 709 79% 21k $106k (exactly $106,137) BEESWAX GAMES
Metal: Hellsinger VR $29.99 107 68% 3.2k $96k (exactly $96,268) Lab42, The Outsiders
Kizuna AI - Touch the Beat! older $34.99 65 86% 2.0k $68k (exactly $68,230) Gemdrops, Inc.
Chair F*cking Simulator older $1.99 774 95% 23k $46k (exactly $46,208) SoSorrySoft
Aim Climb older $6.80 225 89% 6.8k $46k (exactly $45,900) YuLu
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
This Curse Is Metal as Hell! | Kusodeka Bayashi $2.99 138 98% 4.1k $12k (exactly $12,379) HAZECODE
Clapism $2.99 29 86% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Woodpile
Menhera Farm $6.99 12 83% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Sugar Star, シュガースター
PERIOD SURVIVAL $2.99 19 100% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) Vaeirus
Under The Floor · EA $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) No Laugh Studio
Penance $2.99 12 100% 360 $1.1k (exactly $1,076) Scriptorium Artis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.