Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Idler?

Idler + Horror

Of 73 developers who shipped a Horror Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×469 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 80 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 80 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $446 → $1.9k → $1.3k → $3.9k → $1.3k → $2.0k → $598 (still earning) → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,142)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $222,741)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 174
Announced 80
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 19,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Sixty Four older $5.99 1,604 73% 48k $288k (exactly $288,239) Oleg Danilov
Tingus Goose $6.99 1,224 89% 37k $257k (exactly $256,673) SweatyChair
SchoolBoy Runaway $1.99 3,731 90% 112k $223k (exactly $222,741) Linked Squad
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
RUSSIAPHOBIA older $0.99 5,589 69% 168k $166k (exactly $165,993) European Flameworms
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Feed the Reactor $6.99 658 82% 20k $138k (exactly $137,983) Adam Travers
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.