Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › PvP

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP game?

PvP

Of 2,456 developers who shipped a PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,615 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $800, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 5,615 games are announced against 1,556 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 5,615 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,456
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.9k → $1.4k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $1.1k → $809 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,456
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $802 (exactly $802)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,191)
Top 5% $779k (exactly $779,220)
Developers, 2 yr 2,456
Released games 8,938
Announced 5,615
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,308,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $800, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 1,517 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,615 games are announced against 1,556 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with PvP

65 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. PvP + World War I Fair $1.3k 12 devs
  2. PvP + Cold War Poor odds $66k 13 devs
  3. PvP + Alternate History Poor odds $29k 21 devs
  4. PvP + Mechs Poor odds $13k 22 devs
  5. PvP + Dragons Poor odds $9.6k 22 devs
  6. PvP + Lovecraftian Poor odds $9.0k 9 devs
  7. PvP + Dinosaurs Poor odds $9.0k 13 devs
  8. PvP + Capitalism Poor odds $6.5k 42 devs
  9. PvP + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $6.3k 13 devs
  10. PvP + Romance Poor odds $6.3k 15 devs
  11. PvP + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.8k 63 devs
  12. PvP + Modern Poor odds $4.8k 55 devs
  13. PvP + World War II Poor odds $4.5k 21 devs
  14. PvP + Dogs Poor odds $4.4k 14 devs
  15. PvP + Steampunk Poor odds $3.6k 19 devs
  16. PvP + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $3.1k 87 devs
  17. PvP + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.7k 85 devs
  18. PvP + Zombies Poor odds $2.4k 63 devs
  19. PvP + Historical Poor odds $2.2k 89 devs
  20. PvP + Naval Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  21. PvP + Music Poor odds $2.1k 17 devs
  22. PvP + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 31 devs
  23. PvP + Crime Poor odds $1.9k 21 devs
  24. PvP + Noir Poor odds $1.9k 16 devs
  25. PvP + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 153 devs
  26. PvP + Cats Poor odds $1.4k 39 devs
  27. PvP + Military Poor odds $1.3k 175 devs
  28. PvP + Martial Arts Poor odds $1.2k 57 devs
  29. PvP + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 39 devs
  30. PvP + War Poor odds $1.2k 182 devs
  31. PvP + Demons Poor odds $1.0k 30 devs
  32. PvP + Fantasy Poor odds $900 329 devs
  33. PvP + Medieval Poor odds $900 169 devs
  34. PvP + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 242 devs
  35. PvP + Cyberpunk Poor odds $899 61 devs
  36. PvP + Western Poor odds $899 27 devs
  37. PvP + Mythology Poor odds $899 25 devs
  38. PvP + Pirates Poor odds $899 21 devs
  39. PvP + Psychological Poor odds $898 53 devs
  40. PvP + Magic Poor odds $896 141 devs
  41. PvP + Futuristic Poor odds $748 131 devs
  42. PvP + Heist Poor odds $748 12 devs
  43. PvP + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $719 70 devs
  44. PvP + Mystery Poor odds $719 61 devs
  45. PvP + Superhero Poor odds $719 11 devs
  46. PvP + Supernatural Poor odds $629 26 devs
  47. PvP + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $628 71 devs
  48. PvP + Ninja Poor odds $599 25 devs
  49. PvP + Detective Poor odds $598 46 devs
  50. PvP + Space Poor odds $539 115 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.