Should I ship a Magic PvP game?
PvP + Magic
Of 141 developers who shipped a paid Magic PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 534 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 534 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $896 (exactly $896) |
| Top 25% | $6.5k (exactly $6,501) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $204,232) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 141 |
| Released games | 563 |
| Announced | 534 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 44%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 70% positive over 66,996 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 534 games are announced against 85 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Black Desert 2017 · $19M 
Monster Train 2020 · $15M 
Mortal Online 2 2022 · $13M 
Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
| | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
| | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | Legion TD 2 - Multiplayer Tower Defense | older | $24.99 | 12,607 86% | 378k | $9.5M (exactly $9,451,468) | AutoAttack Games |
 | Witch It | older | $19.99 | 14,540 89% | 436k | $8.7M (exactly $8,719,638) | Barrel Roll Games |
 | PixARK | older | $19.99 | 11,142 73% | 334k | $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) | Snail Games USA |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Mage Arena | · EA | $2.99 | 17,800 91% | 534k | $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) | jrsjams |
 | Oaken Tower | · EA | $9.99 | 3,024 89% | 91k | $906k (exactly $906,293) | Bocary Studios |
 | Clank! | $22.99 | 542 92% | 16k | $374k (exactly $373,817) | Dire Wolf | |
 | Talisman: Digital 5th Edition | $29.99 | 227 70% | 6.8k | $204k (exactly $204,232) | Nomad Games | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | Camelot Unchained | · EA | $9.99 | 369 38% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | Unchained Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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