Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic PvP game?

PvP + Post-apocalyptic

Of 87 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1925 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 258 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 258 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $57k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $1.8k → $31k → $6.3k → $659 (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 281
Announced 258
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 369,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Dying Light 2015 · $280M Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 2023 · $29M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Miscreated older $29.99 23,050 66% 692k $21M (exactly $20,738,085) Entrada Interactive LLC
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
DAEMON X MACHINA older $49.99 6,172 85% 185k $9.3M (exactly $9,256,148) Marvelous Inc.
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.