Should I ship a Modern-Day PvP game?
PvP + Modern
Of 55 developers who shipped a Modern-Day PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $69M, ×46651 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 119 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.8k (exactly $4,788) |
| Top 25% | $274k (exactly $273,867) |
| Top 5% | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 55 |
| Released games | 207 |
| Announced | 119 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Online Co-Op
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 63% positive over 509,275 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Squad 2020 · $217M 
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 2025 · $209M 
Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 6 | $69.99 | 295,442 63% | 8.9M | $620M (exactly $620,339,567) | Battlefield Studios | |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | EA SPORTS FC™ 26 | $69.99 | 99,773 50% | 3.0M | $209M (exactly $209,493,368) | EA Canada, EA Romania | |
| | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® | older | $59.99 | 43,229 79% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $77,799,231) | Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software) |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II | older | $69.99 | 26,543 45% | 796k | $56M (exactly $55,732,337) | Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob) |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III | older | $69.99 | 20,701 47% | 621k | $43M (exactly $43,465,890) | Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware) |
 | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
 | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
 | Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE | $39.99 | 7,662 70% | 230k | $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) | Netmarble Neo | |
 | Onward | $24.99 | 8,621 69% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) | Downpour Interactive | |
 | Forefront | $27.99 | 1,913 84% | 57k | $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) | Triangle Factory | |
 | Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 | $69.99 | 631 67% | 19k | $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) | FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd. | |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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