Should I ship an Alien PvP game?
PvP + Aliens
Of 39 developers who shipped an Alien PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×245 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 99 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $9.8k (exactly $9,828) |
| Top 5% | $367k (exactly $367,405) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 169 |
| Announced | 99 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Combat
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 3,852 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II 2020 · $105M 
Among Us 2018 · $99M 
Half-Life 1998 · $35M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II | older | $39.99 | 87,494 88% | 2.6M | $105M (exactly $104,966,552) | DICE |
| | Among Us | older | $4.99 | 659,003 92% | 20M | $99M (exactly $98,652,749) | Innersloth |
| | Half-Life | older | $9.99 | 117,320 96% | 3.5M | $35M (exactly $35,160,804) | Valve |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | STAR WARS™ Battlefront | older | $19.99 | 5,190 79% | 156k | $3.1M (exactly $3,112,443) | DICE |
 | Predator: Hunting Grounds | older | $19.99 | 4,635 76% | 139k | $2.8M (exactly $2,779,610) | IllFonic |
 | Silica | · EA older | $19.99 | 4,468 77% | 134k | $2.7M (exactly $2,679,460) | Martin 'Dram' Melichárek |
 | Level Zero: Extraction | $19.99 | 2,446 50% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) | Doghowl Games | |
 | Interstellar Rift | older | $19.99 | 1,411 66% | 42k | $846k (exactly $846,177) | Split Polygon |
 | Down with the Ship | · EA | $14.99 | 817 93% | 25k | $367k (exactly $367,405) | Iron Anchor Games |
 | Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids | $29.99 | 90 83% | 2.7k | $81k (exactly $80,973) | Snapshot Games Inc. | |
 | Moduwar | · EA | $14.99 | 134 88% | 4.0k | $60k (exactly $60,260) | Biohex Studios |
 | Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy | $12.99 | 95 57% | 2.9k | $37k (exactly $37,022) | BrettspielWelt GmbH | |
 | Earth vs Mars | $14.99 | 74 85% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | DIG Raiders: Anomaly Extraction | $9.99 | 74 86% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $22,178) | Soda Game Studio | |
 | Aaero2 | $14.99 | 36 94% | 1.1k | $16k (exactly $16,189) | Mad Fellows | |
 | Mimicry! | $9.99 | 45 97% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | Wayward Skies Studio | |
 | Deep Dark Forest | $7.99 | 41 87% | 1.2k | $9.8k (exactly $9,828) | pixiangames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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