Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy PvP game?

PvP + Dark Fantasy

Of 70 developers who shipped a paid Dark-Fantasy PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 300 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 300 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 290% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 300 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.8k → $25k → $1.8k → $240 → $719 → $2.5k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,689)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 253
Announced 300
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 42%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 44,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 300 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ II older $39.99 33,329 87% 1.0M $40M (exactly $39,984,801) FromSoftware, Inc.
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection $49.99 1,214 63% 36k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,636) Digital Eclipse
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Warhammer 40,000: Speed Freeks $19.99 493 85% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Caged Element
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.