Should I ship a Music PvP game?
PvP + Music
Only 17 developers shipped a Music PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×1.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×1278 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 19 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $809 (exactly $809) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,187) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,915,117) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 66 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Rhythm, Action
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,323 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
DJMAX RESPECT V 2020 · $45M 
Beat Saber 2019 · $42M 
Tetris® Effect: Connected 2021 · $10M 
EZ2ON REBOOT : R 2022 · $8.1M 
Ragnarock 2021 · $2.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DJMAX RESPECT V | older | $49.99 | 29,808 88% | 894k | $45M (exactly $44,703,058) | NEOWIZ |
| | Beat Saber | older | $19.99 | 69,750 95% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $41,829,075) | Beat Games |
| | Tetris® Effect: Connected | older | $39.99 | 8,429 94% | 253k | $10M (exactly $10,112,271) | Monstars Inc., Resonair, Stage Games |
| | EZ2ON REBOOT : R | older | $44.99 | 5,972 91% | 179k | $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) | Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS |
| | Ragnarock | older | $24.99 | 2,775 94% | 83k | $2.1M (exactly $2,080,417) | WanadevStudio |
 | Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival | $49.99 | 1,277 83% | 38k | $1.9M (exactly $1,915,117) | Bandai Namco Amusement Lab Inc. | |
 | Lumines Arise | $39.99 | 848 94% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) | Enhance, Monstars Inc. | |
 | Headbangers: Rhythm Royale | older | $29.99 | 983 69% | 29k | $884k (exactly $884,405) | Glee-Cheese Studio |
 | Beat Hazard 2 | older | $18.99 | 1,396 89% | 42k | $795k (exactly $795,301) | Cold Beam Games |
 | KALPA: Cosmic Symphony | $19.99 | 640 84% | 19k | $384k (exactly $383,808) | QueseraGames | |
 | Mimic Party | $6.99 | 430 46% | 13k | $90k (exactly $90,171) | FoliesAPP | |
 | Dance Eden | $19.99 | 42 85% | 1.3k | $25k (exactly $25,187) | DigiEden | |
 | Aaero2 | $14.99 | 36 94% | 1.1k | $16k (exactly $16,189) | Mad Fellows | |
 | MAGICAL BEAT | $9.99 | 29 79% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | Arc System Works, APLUS Co., Ltd. | |
 | SingFever - Your Sing Game | · EA | $29.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $3.6k (exactly $3,599) | Gaming Limited |
 | Catch Flex | $9.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | Vilegacy | |
 | Gorilla Showdown | $6.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $2.1k (exactly $2,097) | Sloth King |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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