Should I ship a Fantasy PvP game?
PvP + Fantasy
Of 329 developers who shipped a paid Fantasy PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 1,086 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 1,086 games are announced against 194 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $900 (exactly $900) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $10,793) |
| Top 5% | $852k (exactly $851,659) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 329 |
| Released games | 1,350 |
| Announced | 1,086 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 44%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, RPG
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 127,248 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 251 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,086 games are announced against 194 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER III | older | $59.99 | 104,822 71% | 3.1M | $189M (exactly $188,648,153) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
 | DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin | older | $39.99 | 83,722 84% | 2.5M | $100M (exactly $100,441,283) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
 | Conan Exiles Enhanced | older | $39.99 | 79,741 78% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,665,278) | Funcom, Inflexion Games |
 | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
 | GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- | older | $39.99 | 47,650 88% | 1.4M | $57M (exactly $57,165,705) | Arc System Works |
 | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition | $29.99 | 12,286 85% | 369k | $11M (exactly $11,053,714) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE | $39.99 | 7,662 70% | 230k | $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) | Netmarble Neo | |
 | The Bazaar | $19.99 | 14,931 70% | 448k | $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) | Tempo | |
 | Backpack Battles | $14.99 | 18,933 91% | 568k | $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) | PlayWithFurcifer | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Rivals of Aether II | $29.99 | 6,980 78% | 209k | $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) | Aether Studios | |
 | ATLYSS | · EA | $9.99 | 19,244 96% | 577k | $5.8M (exactly $5,767,427) | Kiseff |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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