Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror PvP game?

PvP + Psychological Horror

Of 85 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×1138 the market median. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 165 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 165 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $122k → $6.1k → $24k → $1.3k → $2.7k → $4.8k → $6.8k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,301)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 257
Announced 165
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, Survival Horror
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 135,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
BIGFOOT · EA older $19.99 17,818 83% 535k $11M (exactly $10,685,455) CyberLight Game Studio
The Texas Chain Saw Massacre older $14.99 19,731 68% 592k $8.9M (exactly $8,873,031) Sumo Digital
Call of Duty®: Vanguard older $59.99 4,172 67% 125k $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware)
Jujutsu Kaisen Cursed Clash older $59.99 3,051 60% 92k $5.5M (exactly $5,490,885) Byking Inc.
Total War: PHARAOH older $29.99 3,622 63% 109k $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY
Minecraft Legends older $39.99 2,621 59% 79k $3.1M (exactly $3,144,414) Mojang Studios, Blackbird Interactive
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
MY HERO ACADEMIA: All’s Justice $59.99 765 63% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770) Byking Inc.
Carnival Hunt · EA $19.99 2,092 63% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,254,572) Crytivo, Beer Night Studio
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Machine Party $7.99 4,199 87% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,006,500) Mike Klubnika, GDeavid
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.