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Should I ship a Lovecraftian PvP game?
PvP + Lovecraftian
Only 9 developers shipped a Lovecraftian PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is up 635% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.0k (exactly $9,017) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $33,452) |
| Top 5% | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 635% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Lovecraftian
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 25,967 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DUSK | older | $19.99 | 22,073 97% | 662k | $13M (exactly $13,237,178) | David Szymanski |
| | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
| | Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game | older | $19.99 | 970 79% | 29k | $582k (exactly $581,709) | Avalanche Software |
| | Underspace | · EA older | $19.99 | 434 81% | 13k | $260k (exactly $260,270) | Pastaspace Interactive |
| | The Yellow King | · EA older | $8.99 | 195 46% | 5.9k | $53k (exactly $52,592) | Spellbook |
| | Empires Shall Fall | older | $12.99 | 129 86% | 3.9k | $50k (exactly $50,271) | Weird Penguin Games |
| | Egress | older | $14.99 | 107 58% | 3.2k | $48k (exactly $48,118) | Fazan |
| | Dread Meridian | $19.99 | 68 70% | 2.0k | $41k (exactly $40,780) | KUKRGAME | |
| | SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL | $11.99 | 93 89% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,452) | GasGod Games, GLUE MAN | |
| | Genderbend Me! Sayonara Demon Dong | older | $9.99 | 60 80% | 1.8k | $18k (exactly $17,982) | Norn |
| | Summoner's Gambit | $7.99 | 69 52% | 2.1k | $17k (exactly $16,539) | Billion Studio | |
| | Paws Coven | $6.99 | 43 67% | 1.3k | $9.0k (exactly $9,017) | Wintercrow Games | |
| | Ritual Night | · EA | $4.99 | 27 85% | 810 | $4.0k (exactly $4,042) | Outfox Games |
| | Rite or Ruin | $5.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | Potato Puppy | |
| | Feed The Gods | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | TedRed | |
| | Where is my hat? | $1.00 | 3 100% | 90 | $90 (exactly $90) | God's Hat Team |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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