Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian PvP game?

PvP + Lovecraftian

Only 9 developers shipped a Lovecraftian PvP game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is up 635% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 635% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for PvP + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $9.0k (exactly $9,017)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,452)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 33
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 635% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 25,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game older $19.99 970 79% 29k $582k (exactly $581,709) Avalanche Software
Underspace · EA older $19.99 434 81% 13k $260k (exactly $260,270) Pastaspace Interactive
The Yellow King · EA older $8.99 195 46% 5.9k $53k (exactly $52,592) Spellbook
Empires Shall Fall older $12.99 129 86% 3.9k $50k (exactly $50,271) Weird Penguin Games
Egress older $14.99 107 58% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Fazan
Dread Meridian $19.99 68 70% 2.0k $41k (exactly $40,780) KUKRGAME
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
Genderbend Me! Sayonara Demon Dong older $9.99 60 80% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) Norn
Summoner's Gambit $7.99 69 52% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Billion Studio
Paws Coven $6.99 43 67% 1.3k $9.0k (exactly $9,017) Wintercrow Games
Ritual Night · EA $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Outfox Games
Rite or Ruin $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Potato Puppy
Feed The Gods $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) TedRed
Where is my hat? $1.00 3 100% 90 $90 (exactly $90) God's Hat Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.