Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist PvP game?

PvP + Capitalism

Of 42 developers who shipped a Capitalist PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×4.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×2001 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 72 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 72 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $4.8k → $20k → $35k → $8.4k → $2.1k (still earning) → $6.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,572)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 90
Announced 72
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Economy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 38,704 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Le Mans Ultimate 2025 · $18M The Bazaar 2025 · $9.0M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M Turmoil 2016 · $5.1M Total War: PHARAOH 2023 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Total War: PHARAOH older $29.99 3,622 63% 109k $3.3M (exactly $3,258,713) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Timeflow – Life Sim · EA older $14.99 1,379 91% 41k $620k (exactly $620,136) Digital Geckos
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
NEW MONOPOLY® $29.99 531 36% 16k $478k (exactly $477,741) UBISOFT, Engine Software
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
XF Extreme Formula $11.99 366 90% 11k $132k (exactly $131,650) Feperd Games
Mall Rivals $14.99 196 75% 5.9k $88k (exactly $88,141) Creedon Games
Summer Islands $14.99 190 81% 5.7k $85k (exactly $85,443) Marttalin Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.