Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi PvP game?

PvP + Sci-fi

Of 242 developers who shipped a Sci-fi PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 729 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 729 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 729 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 242
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $807 → $1.4k → $3.3k → $3.1k → $1.4k → $599 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 242
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028)
Developers, 2 yr 242
Released games 998
Announced 729
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 35%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Co-op
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 467,720 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 155 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 729 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Titanfall® 2 2020 · $229M ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II 2020 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Among Us older $4.99 659,003 92% 20M $99M (exactly $98,652,749) Innersloth
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Half-Life older $9.99 117,320 96% 3.5M $35M (exactly $35,160,804) Valve
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.