Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime PvP game?

PvP + Crime

Of 21 developers who shipped a Crime PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $23k, ×16 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 65 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 65 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $299 → $3.4k → $1.6k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,734)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 72
Announced 65
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 325% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Automobile Sim, Co-op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comedy, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 211,013 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Battlefield™ Hardline older $39.99 4,000 68% 120k $4.8M (exactly $4,798,800) DICE
Due Process · EA older $9.99 6,558 83% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,965,433) Giant Enemy Crab
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Grey Hack · EA older $19.99 1,801 90% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,080,060) Loading Home
Clue/Cluedo older $14.99 489 89% 15k $220k (exactly $219,903) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
GangV | VR & PC Battle Royale · EA older $14.99 337 60% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) raptor lab
Bullet Roulette VR older $7.99 435 86% 13k $104k (exactly $104,270) Fibrum Limited
Mini Thief older $4.99 373 69% 11k $56k (exactly $55,838) Stranga Games, TommahGames
Revenge of the Boxer: Moscow Criminality older $4.99 166 90% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,850) Alligator Friends Software
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
Light Fingers $19.99 17 76% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Numizmatic
Deliverage $12.99 17 82% 510 $6.6k (exactly $6,625) Majao Games
Eat the Rich: Greed Games $7.99 26 96% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Maccima Games
Red Chair · EA $9.99 14 21% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) RedChair Gameworks
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
The Masquerade $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Chewa
NEVER HAPPENED $3.99 18 66% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) SF Create

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.