Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic PvP game?

PvP + Futuristic

Of 131 developers who shipped a Futuristic PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 422 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $230. 422 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 422 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $449 → $1.4k → $959 → $1.6k → $899 → $449 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $225 (exactly $225)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,594)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 563
Announced 422
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 37%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 422,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $230, median $750, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $230. 7 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 422 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Titanfall® 2 2020 · $229M Marathon 2026 · $54M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Call of Duty®: Advanced Warfare - Gold Edition older $39.99 11,103 64% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 $69.99 4,344 37% 130k $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware)
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.