Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic game?

Magic

Of 2,377 developers who shipped a Magic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,810 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×606 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 4,810 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,377
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.7k → $1.6k → $1.8k → $1.7k → $1.7k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,377
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,067)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 2,377
Released games 7,332
Announced 4,810
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 271,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,314 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Magic

159 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Multiple Endings + Magic Poor odds $2.6k 205 devs
  2. Wargame + Magic Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  3. Loot + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 184 devs
  4. Tactical RPG + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 151 devs
  5. RPG + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 1,064 devs
  6. Co-op + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 126 devs
  7. Turn-Based Combat + Magic Poor odds $2.2k 376 devs
  8. Typing + Magic Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  9. Exploration + Magic Poor odds $2.2k 532 devs
  10. Class-Based + Magic Poor odds $2.2k 103 devs
  11. Dungeon Crawler + Magic Poor odds $2.1k 324 devs
  12. Procedural Generation + Magic Poor odds $2.1k 180 devs
  13. Resource Management + Magic Poor odds $2.1k 141 devs
  14. Perma Death + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 85 devs
  15. Hack and Slash + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 290 devs
  16. God Game + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 17 devs
  17. RTS + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 68 devs
  18. Economy + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 59 devs
  19. Spectacle fighter + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 41 devs
  20. Investigation + Magic Poor odds $1.9k 45 devs
  21. Point & Click + Magic Poor odds $1.8k 127 devs
  22. Online Co-Op + Magic Poor odds $1.8k 116 devs
  23. Local Multiplayer + Magic Poor odds $1.8k 42 devs
  24. 4 Player Local + Magic Poor odds $1.8k 20 devs
  25. Character Action Game + Magic Poor odds $1.8k 9 devs
  26. Inventory Management + Magic Poor odds $1.7k 87 devs
  27. Local Co-Op + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 39 devs
  28. Action RPG + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 423 devs
  29. Adventure + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 1,059 devs
  30. Collectathon + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 86 devs
  31. Word Game + Magic Poor odds $1.6k 31 devs
  32. Turn-Based Strategy + Magic Poor odds $1.5k 282 devs
  33. Deckbuilding + Magic Poor odds $1.5k 196 devs
  34. Colony Sim + Magic Poor odds $1.5k 16 devs
  35. Split Screen + Magic Poor odds $1.5k 8 devs
  36. Grid-Based Movement + Magic Poor odds $1.4k 78 devs
  37. Roguelite + Magic Poor odds $1.4k 528 devs
  38. Walking Simulator + Magic Poor odds $1.4k 24 devs
  39. Turn-Based Tactics + Magic Poor odds $1.3k 304 devs
  40. Traditional Roguelike + Magic Poor odds $1.3k 37 devs
  41. Tactical + Magic Poor odds $1.3k 223 devs
  42. Roguelike + Magic Poor odds $1.3k 548 devs
  43. Mystery Dungeon + Magic Poor odds $1.2k 62 devs
  44. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Magic Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  45. Strategy + Magic Poor odds $1.2k 702 devs
  46. Bullet Hell + Magic Poor odds $1.2k 232 devs
  47. Swordplay + Magic Poor odds $1.1k 68 devs
  48. Action Roguelike + Magic Poor odds $1.1k 375 devs
  49. Card Battler + Magic Poor odds $1.1k 175 devs
  50. Flight + Magic Poor odds $1.0k 15 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M Last Epoch 2024 · $112M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Avowed $49.99 12,653 76% 380k $19M (exactly $18,975,704) Obsidian Entertainment
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.