Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Magic

Of 196 developers who shipped a Magic Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 423 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 423 games are announced against 130 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 423 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $5.7k → $5.1k → $9.2k → $1.2k → $3.5k → $1.1k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,193)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,866)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 438
Announced 423
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 34,181 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 423 games are announced against 130 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Roguebook older $24.99 3,446 84% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,583,466) Abrakam Entertainment SA
SteamWorld Quest: Hand of Gilgamech older $24.99 1,953 87% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,164) Image & Form Games
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Cubic Cosmos $12.99 941 92% 28k $367k (exactly $366,708) Inkstone Atelier
Beastro $19.99 598 92% 18k $359k (exactly $358,621) Timberline Studio
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.