Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic RTS?

RTS + Magic

Of 68 developers who shipped a Magic RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 152 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×272 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 152 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 152 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $599 → $600 → $2.6k → $2.2k → $13k → $1.3k (still earning) → $897 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,840)
Top 5% $408k (exactly $407,796)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 190
Announced 152
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, City Builder
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 12,993 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 152 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Becastled 2025 · $3.2M Kingdom Rush Frontiers - Tower Defense 2016 · $3.0M Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim 2025 · $2.2M Age of Reforging: The Freelands 2025 · $2.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Kingdom Rush Frontiers - Tower Defense older $9.99 10,011 96% 300k $3.0M (exactly $3,000,297) Ironhide Game Studio
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Overlord II older $9.99 4,002 89% 120k $1.2M (exactly $1,199,399) Triumph Studios
GemCraft - Frostborn Wrath older $12.99 2,691 88% 81k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,683) Game in a Bottle
SpellForce 3 Fallen God older $19.99 1,335 86% 40k $801k (exactly $800,599) Grimlore Games
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio
Toy Tactics $24.99 121 91% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) Kraken Empire
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
XiuzhenWorld2 $12.99 134 67% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Noforgetit
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.