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Should I ship a Magic Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Magic
Of 68 developers who shipped a Magic Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1328 the market median. Revenue is up 455% on the market; 162 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $360 (exactly $360) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,098) |
| Top 5% | $834k (exactly $834,022) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 68 |
| Released games | 221 |
| Announced | 162 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 455% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Hack and Slash
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 8,544 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M 
Mortal Online 2 2022 · $13M 
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
| | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
| | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | Legendary Tales | older | $39.99 | 2,711 76% | 81k | $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) | Urban Wolf Games Inc. |
 | Dark Messiah of Might & Magic | older | $9.99 | 9,331 89% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) | Arkane Studios |
 | Until You Fall | older | $24.99 | 2,883 94% | 86k | $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) | Schell Games |
 | Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition | $39.99 | 1,484 78% | 45k | $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) | Myrkur Games | |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
 | Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle | $18.99 | 950 71% | 29k | $541k (exactly $541,215) | KTMG LLC. | |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
 | Talisman: Digital 5th Edition | $29.99 | 227 70% | 6.8k | $204k (exactly $204,232) | Nomad Games | |
 | Shrine's Legacy | $19.99 | 155 82% | 4.7k | $93k (exactly $92,954) | Positive Concept Games | |
 | Queen's Blade Re:Build | $27.77 | 93 70% | 2.8k | $77k (exactly $77,478) | SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios) | |
 | Tracery of Fate | $19.99 | 129 73% | 3.9k | $77k (exactly $77,361) | Sign Narva |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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