Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Magic

Of 232 developers who shipped a Magic Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 337 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $61k, ×129 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 337 games are announced against 145 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 337 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 232
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $1.1k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $2.2k → $449 (still earning) → $716 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 232
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,240)
Top 5% $61k (exactly $61,438)
Developers, 2 yr 232
Released games 474
Announced 337
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 34,419 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $61k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 337 games are announced against 145 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... older $59.99 21,493 88% 645k $39M (exactly $38,680,952) Square Enix, Toylogic Inc.
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Rabi-Ribi older $17.99 10,768 95% 323k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,490) CreSpirit, GemaYue
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Rabbit and Steel older $14.99 10,159 96% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) mino_dev
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
TEVI older $29.99 3,580 88% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Touhou: Scarlet Curiosity older $14.99 1,219 91% 37k $548k (exactly $548,184) Ankake Spa
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp
DreamEcho $11.99 369 79% 11k $133k (exactly $132,729) HotWaterStudio
Machick 2 $6.99 606 88% 18k $127k (exactly $127,078) DeadPixel
Hand of Fate: Hordes · EA $11.99 312 79% 9.4k $112k (exactly $112,226) Spitfire Interactive
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Little Witch Survivors $4.99 543 87% 16k $81k (exactly $81,287) 四月二酱

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.