Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Magic

Of 304 developers who shipped a Magic Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 462 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×433 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 462 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 462 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 304
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $2.2k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $3.0k → $779 (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 304
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,870)
Top 5% $272k (exactly $271,621)
Developers, 2 yr 304
Released games 810
Announced 462
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 122,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 161 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 462 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.