Should I ship a Magic game?
Magic
Of 2,377 developers who shipped a Magic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,810 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×606 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,435) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,067) |
| Top 5% | $288k (exactly $287,856) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 2,377 |
| Released games | 7,332 |
| Announced | 4,810 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Magic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 271,071 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 1,314 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,810 games are announced against 1,415 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
All pairs with Magic
No pair with Magic has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition | older | $39.99 | 219,271 94% | 6.6M | $263M (exactly $263,059,419) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
 | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
 | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH | $49.99 | 25,363 75% | 761k | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) | Square Enix | |
 | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
 | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
 | Avowed | $49.99 | 12,653 76% | 380k | $19M (exactly $18,975,704) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
 | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | Shape of Dreams | $24.99 | 15,769 89% | 473k | $12M (exactly $11,822,019) | Lizard Smoothie |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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