Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Roguelite?

Roguelite + Magic

Of 528 developers who shipped a Magic Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 937 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×296 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 937 games are announced against 340 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 937 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 528
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.0k → $5.1k → $2.9k → $1.9k → $2.5k → $899 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 528
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,352)
Top 5% $141k (exactly $140,704)
Developers, 2 yr 528
Released games 1,051
Announced 937
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 109,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 207 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 937 games are announced against 340 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
Wizard of Legend older $15.99 17,322 91% 520k $8.3M (exactly $8,309,363) Contingent99
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Astral Ascent older $24.99 5,408 94% 162k $4.1M (exactly $4,054,378) Hibernian Workshop
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Wizard of Legend 2 $24.99 1,968 53% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,475,410) Dead Mage
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Garden of Witches $18.99 1,978 92% 59k $1.1M (exactly $1,126,867) Team Tapas
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.