Do I ship it?

GamesWalking SimulatorWalking Simulator + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Walking Simulator?

Walking Simulator + Magic

Of 24 developers who shipped a Magic Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×476 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Walking Simulator + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $27k → $535 → $716 → $4.6k → $1.2k → $748 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Walking Simulator + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $226k (exactly $226,251)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 100
Announced 51
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Walking Simulator; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,041 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds13 devs · median $5.8k · 9 announced
  2. + WarFair10 devs · median $5.1k · 12 announced
  3. + RomanceFair36 devs · median $3.5k · 38 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair38 devs · median $2.7k · 25 announced
  5. + ThrillerFair449 devs · median $2.7k · 499 announced
  6. + MusicFair16 devs · median $2.1k · 20 announced
  7. + SupernaturalFair297 devs · median $1.8k · 354 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair1,043 devs · median $1.7k · 1,251 announced
  9. + PsychologicalFair442 devs · median $1.7k · 552 announced
  10. + IdlerFair38 devs · median $1.7k · 41 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  12. + NoirFair44 devs · median $1.5k · 52 announced

All 145 pairs on the Walking Simulator page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim VR older $59.99 9,129 74% 274k $16M (exactly $16,429,461) Bethesda Game Studios
Valley older $14.99 6,276 91% 188k $2.8M (exactly $2,822,317) Blue Isle Studios
Spirit of the North 2 $29.99 934 85% 28k $840k (exactly $840,320) Infuse Studio
Book of Travels older $4.99 1,595 73% 48k $239k (exactly $238,772) Might and Delight
Junji Ito Maniac: An Infinite Gaol $11.99 629 78% 19k $226k (exactly $226,251) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
The End of the Sun $24.99 228 97% 6.8k $171k (exactly $170,932) The End of the Sun Forge
Sumire older $5.99 887 95% 27k $159k (exactly $159,394) GameTomo Team
Mystic Academy: Escape Room older $10.99 224 75% 6.7k $74k (exactly $73,853) mc2games
Lunacy: Saint Rhodes older $19.99 121 61% 3.6k $73k (exactly $72,564) Stormling Studios
Chopped Up $4.99 123 95% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Dekaizen Studios LLC
Unpetrified: Echoes of Nature $19.99 30 96% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Dreamhunt Studio
Valley of Shadow $19.99 12 100% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Synersteel Studio
Fiendish Quest $9.99 23 73% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) オニチク屋!
Medieval Delivery $12.99 14 64% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Mega Game Studios
Teleport Master $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) SinPoDo
BookStore Simulator $7.99 17 41% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) Dark Mind

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.