Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Magic

Of 376 developers who shipped a Magic Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 579 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×573 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 579 games are announced against 215 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 579 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 376
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $4.9k → $2.1k → $3.2k → $2.4k → $3.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 376
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $272k (exactly $272,264)
Developers, 2 yr 376
Released games 1,048
Announced 579
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 75,345 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 9 in 10 of the 195 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 579 games are announced against 215 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Ni no Kuni Wrath of the White Witch™ Remastered older $49.99 4,023 83% 121k $6.0M (exactly $6,033,293) LEVEL5 Inc., QLOC
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
LUNAR Remastered Collection $49.99 576 91% 17k $864k (exactly $863,827) ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.