Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Roguelike?

Roguelike + Magic

Of 548 developers who shipped a Magic Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 948 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×266 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 948 games are announced against 349 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 948 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 548
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $629 → $2.5k → $1.7k → $1.7k → $1.6k → $899 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 548
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,982)
Top 5% $126k (exactly $126,366)
Developers, 2 yr 548
Released games 1,147
Announced 948
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 52,062 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 230 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 948 games are announced against 349 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Wizard of Legend older $15.99 17,322 91% 520k $8.3M (exactly $8,309,363) Contingent99
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Rabbit and Steel older $14.99 10,159 96% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) mino_dev
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Astral Ascent older $24.99 5,408 94% 162k $4.1M (exactly $4,054,378) Hibernian Workshop
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Wizard of Legend 2 $24.99 1,968 53% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,475,410) Dead Mage
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Garden of Witches $18.99 1,978 92% 59k $1.1M (exactly $1,126,867) Team Tapas
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Touhou Dystopian $9.99 2,161 97% 65k $648k (exactly $647,652) Kay Lnk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.