Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Flight game?

Flight + Magic

Only 15 developers shipped a Magic Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Night Stones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $77k, ×124 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $23k → $4.5k → $1.4k → $300
Outcomes for Flight + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,019)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $77,622)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 56
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $77k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
The Witch of Fern Island older $24.99 700 69% 21k $525k (exactly $524,790) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Night Stones $9.99 259 93% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Advance Nine
Elmarion: Dragon time · EA older $2.99 522 73% 16k $47k (exactly $46,823) Fleon Games
Sky Oceans: Wings for Hire $24.99 45 64% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Octeto Studios
東方资志疏 ~ Immortal Immanuel. (东方资志疏) $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) 雾雨威Channel, 沙包聚集地制作组
Avium older $29.99 26 76% 780 $23k (exactly $23,392) The Robot
Undead: Rise of the Betrayed King · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Artak Avetisyan
Flying Neko Delivery older $14.99 22 63% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Fractal Phase
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
Cursed Broom $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Cursed Creations
Nine Heavens $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) 赛博风
我的修仙世界My Xiuxian World $16.99 2 50% 60 $1.0k (exactly $1,019) CUI PU XING
Ignisia · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Dracula's Cat
Gods Of Fire $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nest of Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.