Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Loot game?

Loot + Magic

Of 184 developers who shipped a Magic Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 385 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×618 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 385 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 385 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 184
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.2k → $6.0k → $3.7k → $1.6k → $1.6k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 184
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,985)
Top 5% $388k (exactly $388,345)
Developers, 2 yr 184
Released games 411
Announced 385
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 59,271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 385 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning older $39.99 6,305 78% 189k $7.6M (exactly $7,564,108) KAIKO, Big Huge Games, 38 Studios
Rabbit and Steel older $14.99 10,159 96% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) mino_dev
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
The Incredible Adventures of Van Helsing older $14.99 7,720 83% 232k $3.5M (exactly $3,471,684) NeocoreGames
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Erenshor · EA $19.99 2,153 94% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,291,154) Burgee Media
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Wizordum $19.99 880 91% 26k $528k (exactly $527,736) Emberheart Games
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat
holoVillage: Our Cozy Days $24.99 518 83% 16k $388k (exactly $388,345) Roboqlo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.