Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Asynchronous Multiplayer game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Magic

Only 11 developers shipped a Magic Asynchronous Multiplayer game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Oaken Tower, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1443 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,680)
Top 5% $906k (exactly $906,293)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 88% positive over 3,325 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Conquest of Elysium 5 older $29.99 1,872 90% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) Illwinter Game Design
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Chaos Reborn older $9.99 819 74% 25k $245k (exactly $245,454) Snapshot Games Inc.
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Some of You May Die $14.99 66 69% 2.0k $30k (exactly $29,680) Octavia Blue
Conclave older $9.99 71 73% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) 10x10 Room
Summoner's Gambit $7.99 69 52% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Billion Studio
Hero Allstars: Void Invasion older $4.99 84 91% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) DakeCraft
Gem Rush older $9.99 19 94% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Quicksilver Software, Inc.
Mirror Throne: Auto Battler $6.99 21 90% 630 $4.4k (exactly $4,404) Zackavelli
Circuit Stance $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fluffy Brown
Everforge: Craft Legends $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Ammonite Design Studios Ltd
Aura Farming Simulator $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) ShortStackStudio
Corlero $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Test 3 Games LLC
Thousands of Heroes $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) radiuthree

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.