Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Magic

Of 20 developers who shipped a Magic 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×39 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 45 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $450 → $5.0k → $1.8k → $719 → $359 → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,438)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 85
Announced 45
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Family Friendly, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 264 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trine 4: The Nightmare Prince older $29.99 11,712 88% 351k $11M (exactly $10,537,286) Frozenbyte
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
Magicka 2 older $14.99 9,486 82% 285k $4.3M (exactly $4,265,854) Pieces Interactive
Chronicon older $13.99 8,822 94% 265k $3.7M (exactly $3,702,593) Subworld
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Dokapon Kingdom: Connect older $49.99 801 86% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,260) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Sting
MageQuit older $14.99 1,032 94% 31k $464k (exactly $464,090) Bowlcut Studios
Innchanted older $19.99 117 84% 3.5k $70k (exactly $70,165) DragonBear Studios
Wand Wars older $11.99 183 96% 5.5k $66k (exactly $65,825) Moonradish Inc.
FAIRY TAIL: Beach Volleyball Havoc older $6.99 145 92% 4.4k $30k (exactly $30,406) tiny cactus studio, MASUDATARO, veryOK
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin
Otherlights · EA $19.99 15 100% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Soleil Artificiel
MAGE: Mega Awesome Gregarious Encounters $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) FunRug Studio
Wizard Pool $2.99 66 84% 2.0k $5.9k (exactly $5,920) Grouch, SuitNtie, Negative Karma
WIZARD PUNKS!!! $6.99 23 95% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) EyeOfStormCat
Zone 6 $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Ullbors
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
The Hero of Destiny was killed by the final boss $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Sungrand
Boardquest: Tales of Liria $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ramezware SL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.