Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Economy game?

Economy + Magic

Of 59 developers who shipped a Magic Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×649 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 116 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $40k → $31k → $23k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,708)
Top 5% $408k (exactly $407,796)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 116
Announced 116
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 16,930 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Spellcaster University older $24.99 3,424 83% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) Sneaky Yak Studio
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Wayblazer Dämmerung $39.99 244 65% 7.3k $293k (exactly $292,727) Eushully
Diggles: The Myth of Fenris older $9.99 619 89% 19k $186k (exactly $185,514) Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, Genera… (Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, General Arcade)
Magical Delicacy older $24.99 240 77% 7.2k $180k (exactly $179,928) Skaule
Wizdom Academy · EA $21.99 235 62% 7.1k $155k (exactly $155,030) Kipwak Studio, Lake On Fire
Beneath the Mountain older $24.99 196 63% 5.9k $147k (exactly $146,941) Omnis Rector Studios
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Alchemist Shop Simulator $11.99 111 75% 3.3k $40k (exactly $39,927) Kool2Play
Lords of Solgrund $19.99 57 77% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Sillylas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.