Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Magic

Of 151 developers who shipped a Magic Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 263 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×783 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 263 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 263 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 151
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $1.4k → $6.5k → $1.8k → $3.6k → $3.6k → $2.7k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 151
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,190)
Top 5% $492k (exactly $491,972)
Developers, 2 yr 151
Released games 408
Announced 263
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 19,505 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 80 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 263 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 15,395 92% 462k $9.2M (exactly $9,232,382) Beamdog
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak older $59.99 1,172 91% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless older $59.99 913 74% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,126) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.