Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Magic

Of 62 developers who shipped a Magic Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 100 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 100 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $210 → $1.4k → $1.4k → $1.9k → $899 → $449 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,250)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,741)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 203
Announced 100
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
Loop Queen-Escape Dungeon 3 older $19.99 611 84% 18k $366k (exactly $366,417) Hide Games
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
Strikey Sisters older $9.99 785 90% 24k $235k (exactly $235,264) DYA Games
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Diggles: The Myth of Fenris older $9.99 619 89% 19k $186k (exactly $185,514) Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, Genera… (Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, General Arcade)
From Frontier older $15.99 359 96% 11k $172k (exactly $172,212) Doubles Core
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Meowgic $7.99 462 79% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) Lazy Turtle Games
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Elmarion: the Lost Temple $14.99 93 67% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Fleon Games
Alisa's Grimoire $16.99 77 87% 2.3k $39k (exactly $39,247) Circle Kurasuke Warehouse
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure Remastered Edition $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.