Do I ship it?

GamesColony SimColony Sim + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Magic

Only 16 developers shipped a Magic Colony Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Becastled, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5108 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $9.4k → $32k → $2.2M → $6.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $111,488)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.90 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.90 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 9,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 46 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Spellcaster University older $24.99 3,424 83% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) Sneaky Yak Studio
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Gord older $49.99 809 53% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,213,257) Covenant.dev
Dungeon Village older $8.99 829 88% 25k $224k (exactly $223,581) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Diggles: The Myth of Fenris older $9.99 619 89% 19k $186k (exactly $185,514) Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, Genera… (Spieleentwicklungskombinat GmbH, General Arcade)
Factory Town Idle older $4.99 1,232 90% 37k $184k (exactly $184,430) Erik Asmussen
Wizdom Academy · EA $21.99 235 62% 7.1k $155k (exactly $155,030) Kipwak Studio, Lake On Fire
Hearthlands older $15.99 306 82% 9.2k $147k (exactly $146,788) Four White Cats
Glittermitten Grove older $9.99 395 82% 12k $118k (exactly $118,382) Mostly Tigerproof
Pandora's Toybox $9.99 372 83% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) BetaLab
Cavern Adventurers $8.99 117 48% 3.5k $32k (exactly $31,555) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Royal Lord - 王权领主 $14.99 40 90% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) 开发鸭
Cube Kingdoms $7.49 27 92% 810 $6.1k (exactly $6,067) GamingPugsStudios
Frontera $9.99 5 20% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Duality LLC
Gnome Glade $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Ykedepi
Wayward Valley · EA $14.99 2 0% 60 $899 (exactly $899) PixelPulse Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.