Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Strategy game?

Strategy + Magic

Of 702 developers who shipped a Magic Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,318 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×433 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,318 games are announced against 428 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,318 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 702
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $1.4k → $1.6k → $1.7k → $1.5k → $1.6k → $809 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 702
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 5% $272k (exactly $271,621)
Developers, 2 yr 702
Released games 1,877
Announced 1,318
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 76,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 348 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,318 games are announced against 428 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ older $49.99 87,777 88% 2.6M $132M (exactly $131,639,167) Monolith Productions
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Legion TD 2 - Multiplayer Tower Defense older $24.99 12,607 86% 378k $9.5M (exactly $9,451,468) AutoAttack Games
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 15,395 92% 462k $9.2M (exactly $9,232,382) Beamdog
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot $14.99 2,588 82% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) Hamma Studios
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.