Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Magic

Of 282 developers who shipped a Magic Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 449 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×536 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 449 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 449 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 282
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.4k → $4.0k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $3.1k → $899 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 282
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,388)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $336,432)
Developers, 2 yr 282
Released games 786
Announced 449
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 73,244 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 143 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 449 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Might & Magic® Heroes® VII older $29.99 6,836 54% 205k $6.2M (exactly $6,150,349) Limbic Entertainment
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
LUNAR Remastered Collection $49.99 576 91% 17k $864k (exactly $863,827) ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd.
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.