Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Magic

Of 42 developers who shipped a Magic Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $92k, ×196 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 93 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $3.3k → $5.0k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $1.2k → $1.9k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $93k (exactly $92,954)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 192
Announced 93
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,555 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $92k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
Wizard of Legend older $15.99 17,322 91% 520k $8.3M (exactly $8,309,363) Contingent99
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
Magicka 2 older $14.99 9,486 82% 285k $4.3M (exactly $4,265,854) Pieces Interactive
LEGO® Harry Potter: Years 1-4 older $19.99 6,458 85% 194k $3.9M (exactly $3,872,863) TT Games
Might & Magic: Heroes VI older $9.99 8,545 47% 256k $2.6M (exactly $2,560,936) Blackhole
Them's Fightin' Herds older $19.99 3,297 83% 99k $2.0M (exactly $1,977,211) Mane6, Inc.
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection $39.99 1,464 82% 44k $1.8M (exactly $1,756,361) TT Games, Double Eleven
Conquest of Elysium 5 older $29.99 1,872 90% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) Illwinter Game Design
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Shrine's Legacy $19.99 155 82% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Positive Concept Games
Final Knight · EA $13.99 180 77% 5.4k $76k (exactly $75,546) 2oclocksoft
Heroes Of Might And Magic III $9.99 166 50% 5.0k $50k (exactly $49,750) Ubisoft, New World Computing
I'm No Demonlord $8.99 163 84% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) NiaoWu Studio
Blueblood Arena · EA $8.99 88 96% 2.6k $24k (exactly $23,734) Team Blueblood
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin
MAGE: Mega Awesome Gregarious Encounters $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) FunRug Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.