Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Immersive Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim

Of 2,663 developers who shipped an Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4,341 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×532 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 4,341 games are announced against 1,625 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 4,341 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,663
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.8k → $4.5k → $3.7k → $5.1k → $3.1k → $3.2k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,663
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,364)
Top 5% $797k (exactly $797,134)
Developers, 2 yr 2,663
Released games 6,689
Announced 4,341
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 422,991 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $790k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 1,513 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 4,341 games are announced against 1,625 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Immersive Sim

65 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Immersive Sim + Western Strong odds $4.4k 17 devs
  2. Immersive Sim + Romance Fair $12k 254 devs
  3. Immersive Sim + LGBTQ+ Fair $11k 87 devs
  4. Immersive Sim + Time Travel Fair $3.7k 20 devs
  5. Immersive Sim + World War II Poor odds $105k 11 devs
  6. Immersive Sim + Martial Arts Poor odds $68k 12 devs
  7. Immersive Sim + Trains Poor odds $21k 33 devs
  8. Immersive Sim + Farming Poor odds $20k 21 devs
  9. Immersive Sim + Pirates Poor odds $17k 7 devs
  10. Immersive Sim + Horses Poor odds $13k 17 devs
  11. Immersive Sim + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $12k 70 devs
  12. Immersive Sim + Heist Poor odds $12k 23 devs
  13. Immersive Sim + Snow Poor odds $11k 18 devs
  14. Immersive Sim + Capitalism Poor odds $10k 222 devs
  15. Immersive Sim + Historical Poor odds $8.3k 111 devs
  16. Immersive Sim + Hacking Poor odds $7.6k 39 devs
  17. Immersive Sim + Crime Poor odds $7.6k 101 devs
  18. Immersive Sim + Military Poor odds $7.2k 50 devs
  19. Immersive Sim + Music Poor odds $6.6k 26 devs
  20. Immersive Sim + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $6.5k 133 devs
  21. Immersive Sim + War Poor odds $6.3k 49 devs
  22. Immersive Sim + Assassins Poor odds $6.3k 12 devs
  23. Immersive Sim + Female Protagonist Poor odds $5.8k 239 devs
  24. Immersive Sim + Modern Poor odds $5.7k 155 devs
  25. Immersive Sim + Magic Poor odds $5.5k 65 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $5.5k 72 devs
  27. Immersive Sim + Mars Poor odds $5.4k 9 devs
  28. Immersive Sim + Dogs Poor odds $4.7k 22 devs
  29. Immersive Sim + Dragons Poor odds $4.3k 8 devs
  30. Immersive Sim + Naval Poor odds $4.0k 22 devs
  31. Immersive Sim + Cold War Poor odds $3.8k 8 devs
  32. Immersive Sim + Medieval Poor odds $3.6k 98 devs
  33. Immersive Sim + Detective Poor odds $3.6k 130 devs
  34. Immersive Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $3.3k 41 devs
  35. Immersive Sim + Mythology Poor odds $3.0k 31 devs
  36. Immersive Sim + Lovecraftian Poor odds $2.9k 30 devs
  37. Immersive Sim + Science Poor odds $2.7k 56 devs
  38. Immersive Sim + Zombies Poor odds $2.6k 59 devs
  39. Immersive Sim + Mechs Poor odds $2.6k 12 devs
  40. Immersive Sim + Supernatural Poor odds $2.6k 147 devs
  41. Immersive Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.4k 224 devs
  42. Immersive Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.4k 209 devs
  43. Immersive Sim + Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 179 devs
  44. Immersive Sim + Noir Poor odds $2.4k 54 devs
  45. Immersive Sim + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.4k 485 devs
  46. Immersive Sim + Thriller Poor odds $2.2k 197 devs
  47. Immersive Sim + Demons Poor odds $2.1k 60 devs
  48. Immersive Sim + Mystery Poor odds $2.0k 394 devs
  49. Immersive Sim + Psychological Poor odds $2.0k 208 devs
  50. Immersive Sim + Dystopian Poor odds $2.0k 64 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M Sons Of The Forest 2024 · $256M Squad 2020 · $217M S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
House Flipper older $24.99 92,333 93% 2.8M $69M (exactly $69,222,050) Empyrean
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.