Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Thriller

Of 197 developers who shipped a Thriller Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 258 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 258 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 197
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $12k → $2.7k → $5.7k → $3.0k → $3.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 197
Bottom 30% $592 (exactly $592)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,922)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Developers, 2 yr 197
Released games 380
Announced 258
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.49 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.49 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 17,884 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 117 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
The Complex: Expedition $14.99 2,620 89% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) pgWave
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
Evil Nun: The Broken Mask older $19.99 1,084 95% 33k $650k (exactly $650,075) Keplerians, Carlos Coronado
Millennium Dream $7.99 2,598 92% 78k $623k (exactly $622,741) LucidDreamLab
SIMULACRA older $4.99 3,454 92% 104k $517k (exactly $517,064) Kaigan Games OÜ
WILL: Follow The Light $24.99 527 73% 16k $395k (exactly $395,092) TomorrowHead Studio
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
消失的航班,还有她她她!Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.