Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Dragons

Only 8 developers shipped a Dragon Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Anthro Heat, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 25% $372k (exactly $371,926)
Top 5% $566k (exactly $565,911)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 27
Announced 24
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 7,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $370k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Dragons Legacy older $4.99 249 81% 7.5k $37k (exactly $37,275) Beawesome Games
Medieval Fantasy Survival Simulator older $1.99 252 96% 7.6k $15k (exactly $15,044) Randumb Studios
Animal Simulator $8.99 39 30% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Imperian Online - Core
桃夭塔 TaoYaoTa older $4.99 40 62% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) 吃了就睡工作室, 桃之夭夭
HOPE VR: Progressive Meditation · EA older $9.99 19 78% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Khosouf Studio
DON'T MOVE $7.99 18 55% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) SPECTACULAR-OCULAR
Pinball Lockdown · EA older $5.99 10 60% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Onteca Ltd
スローライフサバイバー/SlowLife Survivor $6.99 5 0% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MIZUBLUE GAMES
MILK ME DARLING: THE ANALIZED BREAST FRIEND $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) TITANIUM ARMOR
The Abyss Book $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) QZQ Studio
Furry Slot $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Morello

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.