Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Modern

Of 155 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×3.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $990k, ×664 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 167 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 167 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 155
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $22k → $2.1k → $21k → $8.1k → $3.6k → $4.6k (still earning) → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 155
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,643)
Top 5% $994k (exactly $994,425)
Developers, 2 yr 155
Released games 376
Announced 167
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 99,639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $990k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
PC Building Simulator older $19.99 42,153 93% 1.3M $25M (exactly $25,279,154) Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
The Wife Next Door $16.99 1,951 89% 59k $994k (exactly $994,425) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.