Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Trains

Of 33 developers who shipped a Train Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×3249 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $303k → $89k → $18k → $39k → $8.1k → $6.8k → $21k (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 25% $255k (exactly $255,226)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 82
Announced 43
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automobile Sim, Driving
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Family Friendly, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 19,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
Train Sim World® 4 older $29.99 3,322 79% 100k $3.0M (exactly $2,988,803) Dovetail Games
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車! · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
A Bumpy Ride $14.99 569 97% 17k $256k (exactly $255,879) Cosmoporium Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.