Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + War

Of 49 developers who shipped a War Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×3342 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 109 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 109 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $17k → $599 → $86k → $322k → $1.5k → $14k (still earning) → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $208k (exactly $208,417)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 162
Announced 109
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 59,025 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $5.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.