Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Female Protagonist

Of 239 developers who shipped a Female-Led Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 308 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×669 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 308 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 308 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 239
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $7.8k → $44k → $7.8k → $6.6k → $12k → $4.2k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 239
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,760)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,044)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698)
Developers, 2 yr 239
Released games 591
Announced 308
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 64,752 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 308 games are announced against 141 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ older $29.99 9,801 86% 294k $8.8M (exactly $8,817,960) Arkane Studios
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines older $19.99 13,889 94% 417k $8.3M (exactly $8,329,233) Troika Games
Construction Simulator older $24.99 10,606 82% 318k $8.0M (exactly $7,951,318) weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH
Chill with You : Lo-Fi Story $11.99 12,215 98% 366k $4.4M (exactly $4,393,736) Nestopi Inc.
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Streamer Life Simulator 2 $19.99 6,751 81% 203k $4.0M (exactly $4,048,575) Cheesecake Dev
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.