Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Dystopian

Of 64 developers who shipped a Dystopian Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 201 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1350 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 201 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 201 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $8.9k → $11k → $1.4k → $23k → $1.1k → $1.7k (still earning) → $478 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,826)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 151
Announced 201
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Action
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,645 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 201 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
BioShock™ Remastered older $19.99 52,500 83% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,484,250) 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
BioShock™ older $19.99 25,188 93% 756k $15M (exactly $15,105,244) 2K Boston, 2K Australia
BioShock™ 2 Remastered older $19.99 24,316 72% 729k $15M (exactly $14,582,305) 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Peripeteia · EA $24.99 3,120 86% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) Ninth Exodus
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
FACEMINER $7.99 1,517 90% 46k $364k (exactly $363,625) Wristwork
INDUSTRIA 2 $24.99 431 49% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Bleakmill
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Sex Desert: Mad Lust $9.99 323 61% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Carnality INC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.