Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Fantasy

Of 179 developers who shipped a Fantasy Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 364 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×272 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 364 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 364 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 179
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.4k → $3.9k → $3.6k → $2.4k → $2.3k → $5.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 179
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,543)
Top 5% $408k (exactly $407,796)
Developers, 2 yr 179
Released games 490
Announced 364
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 64,537 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 364 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ older $29.99 9,801 86% 294k $8.8M (exactly $8,817,960) Arkane Studios
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! $5.99 24,497 94% 735k $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) ArtRising
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
Redfall older $39.99 2,460 40% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,951,262) Arkane Austin
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic older $9.99 9,331 89% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) Arkane Studios
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Restaurats $19.90 1,640 89% 49k $979k (exactly $979,080) toR Studio
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Rebirth Pub $17.99 700 92% 21k $378k (exactly $377,790) Seikou Soft.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.