Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Heist

Of 23 developers who shipped a Heist Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1874 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $42k → $2.8M → $24k → $419 (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $12k (exactly $11,691)
Top 25% $216k (exactly $215,914)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 45
Announced 45
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 19,753 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dishonored 2 2016 · $39M Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M 112 Operator 2020 · $4.3M Crime Simulator 2025 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
American Theft 80s older $19.99 1,029 73% 31k $617k (exactly $617,091) Noble Muffins
Quadrilateral Cowboy older $19.99 897 92% 27k $538k (exactly $537,931) Blendo Games
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Last Holiday · EA older $29.99 387 40% 12k $348k (exactly $348,184) Boomer Games s.r.o.
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Forensics: Crime Scene Detective $24.99 288 62% 8.6k $216k (exactly $215,914) Binary Impact, Alchemical Works
Thick As Thieves $4.99 1,106 65% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) OtherSide Entertainment
Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry $12.99 399 81% 12k $155k (exactly $155,490) Ritual Interactive
Midnight Heist $9.99 389 92% 12k $117k (exactly $116,583) MediaTale
SEX Police 🔞🚨 $9.99 139 76% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Play and Cum 💦

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.