Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Nature

Of 224 developers who shipped a Nature Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 369 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×516 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 369 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 369 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 224
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.6k → $6.3k → $3.6k → $3.5k → $1.6k → $5.1k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 224
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,264)
Top 5% $773k (exactly $772,585)
Developers, 2 yr 224
Released games 549
Announced 369
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Life Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 131,717 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 117 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 369 games are announced against 129 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
DrainSim · EA $14.99 2,586 91% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) CodePeas
Laysara: Summit Kingdom $24.99 1,421 80% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,324) Quite OK Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.