Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Lovecraftian

Of 30 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×268 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 77 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 77 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $235k → $9.8k → $2.9k → $18k → $1.1k → $1.7k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,870)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,984)
Top 5% $401k (exactly $401,001)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 64
Announced 77
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival Horror, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 5,770 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Eldritch older $14.99 1,698 88% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Minor Key Games
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
HYPERVIOLENT $14.99 156 67% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) nfoPRINCE, Terminist Arcade
EMOTIONLESS : The Last Ticket $9.99 123 82% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) X1 Games
Night of The Black Goat $19.99 55 83% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) サークルREN
SENARA: The Sacrament $17.99 51 74% 1.5k $28k (exactly $27,525) Influsion Inc.
Care $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) The Pocket Dimension

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.